Attendance – supporters, ticket price and condition
Loyals have been kind enough to send me a dataset he has collected with data from over 650,000 matches played on vman over the past year time. I have used this to count on the relationship between spectator numbers, support, ticket prices and stadium conditions.
Supporters and ticket price
We start by looking at the relationship between crowd numbers, supporters and fare if the stadium state is over 80 per cent. According to my results, the expected number of spectators for a match can be calculated by multiplying the home team’s supporters by one factor and the away team’s supporters by another factor. These factors depend on the ticket price:
|Home team support factor||4.6||3.72||2.92||2.09||1.30|
|Away team support factor||0.77||0.63||0.48||0.34||0.20|
This means that if the home team has 1000 supporters and the away team has 2000 supporters while the ticket price is 7, then one can expect that there will be about 1000 * 2.92 + 2000 * 0.48 = 3880 spectators. In addition, it must be added that the game adds a random factor, so that in practice the number of spectators becomes slightly higher or slightly lower. But if you play the same match many times, there will be an average of 3880 spectators.
What we have seen so far may not be super interesting because you can go into every single match and see the expected number of spectators. But the calculation has made it possible to calculate how much you are being penalized for having a stadium condition of less than 80 per cent, and this is not something I have seen before.
When the stadium condition gets below 80 per cent. the number of spectators begins to decline. According to my calculations, the number of spectators decreases linearly by 1.2 percentage points each time the stadium condition drops by 1 percentage point. Ie that if, as before, you had expected that 3880 spectators would come to your match, but your stadium state is 70 per cent. now only 3880 * (100 per cent – 10 * 1.2 per cent) will come = 3880 * 88 per cent. = 3414.4. That is to say that your stadium status is 10 percentage points lower than 80, and therefore 12% will come. fewer spectators for your match.